diff --git a/homeassistant/components/recorder/statistics.py b/homeassistant/components/recorder/statistics.py
index 1c8d62eb827..e0d02e8a0e3 100644
--- a/homeassistant/components/recorder/statistics.py
+++ b/homeassistant/components/recorder/statistics.py
@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ import re
 from statistics import mean
 from typing import TYPE_CHECKING, Any, Literal, cast
 
-from sqlalchemy import bindparam, func, lambda_stmt, select, text
+from sqlalchemy import and_, bindparam, func, lambda_stmt, select, text
 from sqlalchemy.engine import Engine
 from sqlalchemy.engine.row import Row
 from sqlalchemy.exc import OperationalError, SQLAlchemyError, StatementError
@@ -1976,6 +1976,24 @@ def get_latest_short_term_statistics(
         )
 
 
+def _get_most_recent_statistics_subquery(
+    metadata_ids: set[int], table: type[StatisticsBase], start_time_ts: float
+) -> Subquery:
+    """Generate the subquery to find the most recent statistic row."""
+    return (
+        select(
+            # https://github.com/sqlalchemy/sqlalchemy/issues/9189
+            # pylint: disable-next=not-callable
+            func.max(table.start_ts).label("max_start_ts"),
+            table.metadata_id.label("max_metadata_id"),
+        )
+        .filter(table.start_ts < start_time_ts)
+        .filter(table.metadata_id.in_(metadata_ids))
+        .group_by(table.metadata_id)
+        .subquery()
+    )
+
+
 def _statistics_at_time(
     session: Session,
     metadata_ids: set[int],
@@ -1999,22 +2017,17 @@ def _statistics_at_time(
         columns = columns.add_columns(table.sum)
 
     start_time_ts = start_time.timestamp()
-    stmt = lambda_stmt(lambda: columns)
-
-    most_recent_statistic_ids = (
-        # https://github.com/sqlalchemy/sqlalchemy/issues/9189
-        # pylint: disable-next=not-callable
-        lambda_stmt(lambda: select(func.max(table.id).label("max_id")))
-        .filter(table.start_ts < start_time_ts)
-        .filter(table.metadata_id.in_(metadata_ids))
-        .group_by(table.metadata_id)
-        .subquery()
+    most_recent_statistic_ids = _get_most_recent_statistics_subquery(
+        metadata_ids, table, start_time_ts
     )
-
-    stmt += lambda q: q.join(
+    stmt = lambda_stmt(lambda: columns).join(
         most_recent_statistic_ids,
-        table.id == most_recent_statistic_ids.c.max_id,
+        and_(
+            table.start_ts == most_recent_statistic_ids.c.max_start_ts,
+            table.metadata_id == most_recent_statistic_ids.c.max_metadata_id,
+        ),
     )
+
     return cast(Sequence[Row], execute_stmt_lambda_element(session, stmt))